Sleeper Watch: Kelly Johnson

Known far more for his ability to hit than his ability to field, Kelly Johnson has seen his stock take a hit over the last year. A year ago at this time, his name continued to appear on rumor mills, but not because he had struggled that much. The Atlanta Braves were coming off a season where their outfield had struggled mightily and they had a young up and coming infielder in Martin Prado who was looking for time to shine and Kelly Johnson was the odd man out despite hitting well. Now, a year later, and once again Kelly Johnson, still with the Braves, is the odd man out. He's also the higher paid player, which means more likelyhood for an Atlanta Braves team that has holes to fill.

Despite the facts, this may not be a great market for the Braves to be looking to get rid of Kelly Johnson in. There could be second basemen like Felipe Lopez (.310/.383/.427/.810 season), Placido Polanco (.285/.331/.396/.727 season; a season removed from batting .307), and Orlando Hudson (.283/.357/.417/.774 season) on the free agent market. Not to mention a player like Dan Uggla (.243/.354/.459/.813 season) could very well be available through trade. Simply put, there are other options out there than to take a chance on Kelly Johnson, coming off a down year affected by a wrist problem.

That said, that is a reason I believe that if a team will take him and give up even a small piece, Kelly Johnson could become the steal of the offseason at the second base position.

If I had this blog last offseason, this spot would have been taken by Robinson Cano, of the New York Yankees. He was "rumored" to be on the block, albeit I'm not sure how available he really was, but he was coming off a somewhat disappointing season. Still, the numbers didn't add up, as his BABIP was extremely low compared to normal years, which made me believe he was in for a rebound year (that and the fact that he did hit .307/.337/.482/.815 in the 2nd half).

Let's just say, I believe Kelly Johnson is my 2009-2010 version of Robinson Cano, but in this case he is likely readily available given depth of the position and the fact that well these aren't the New York Yankees we're talking about money wise.

So, beginning with the obvious, Kelly Johnson suffered through a 2009 season where he went from struggling starter to a wrist injury to a backup when he returned. One of the better second basemen in the game in 2007 and 2008, Kelly Johnson had a very disappointing season. That said, not all is lost.

In the first half, Kelly Johnson hit just .214/.286/.359/.645, but his very unlucky .237 BABIP might have had something to do with that, given his career BABIP is .311. And looking further into it, Johnson had a solid May hitting .297/.333/.495/.828 because of a .338 BABIP. The other two months (April and June) in the first half were tough with BABIP's of .204 and .148 leading to OPS's of .686 and .396. With the wrist injury coming in July, it's quite obvious that his wrist had to have had an impact on his power in June which was seemingly snatched out of mid air. Johnson, a player who had 109 extra base hits in 2007 and 2008 combined, had just 3 extra base hits in the month of June in 2009, after having 6 in less games in April and 13 in May. Returning from the injury, Kelly Johnson hit 5 extra base hits in 67 plate appearances.

So, the wrist problem may be the biggest hindrince on why a team might not go after a player that had 109 extra base hits over two years from the second base position while also walking 131 times over the two seasons. Kelly Johnson's consistency vs. both left handed pitchers (.299/.360/.448/.808) and right handed pitchers (.251/.341/.424/.765) over his career should be another plus, as he's not really a player that needs to platoon.

Kelly Johnson, a .282/.362/.451/.813 hitter in 2007 and 2008 combined, may not have had the best 2009 season on the market, but going forward, he may be the best value for what a team has to give up or pay.